Rothenberg V Rasmussen

Rasmussen v Rothenberg

Last Week Scott Rasmussen told us that the Collins v Allen race was tightening up. In fact, according to Rasmussen, Allen had closed the gap to just 7 points. That was quite a move from the 15 point margin earlier in the Spring. It was pretty clear that the better Allen numbers were coming at a good time. Just a few short weeks ago, one of the third party groups, unionfacts.org released a poll trumpeting a 15 point lead for Collins. That news was quickly followed by news of a two million dollar cash on hand advantage for Collins. To say the Rasmussen numbers came at good time would be an understatement.

In fact, the Allen campaign was quick to distribute the good news via email stating, "

Today, I come to you with some fantastic news -an independent public polling firm has just released a poll that shows we have cut Senator Collins lead to just 7% points. We have been working hand in hand since this journey started almost 13 months ago, and today, our hard work is really starting to show. Rasmussen Reports' polling today confirmed what I already knew - that with your support and the supporters of thousands of other Mainers, we are going to lead the change this country desperately needs.

Here's the problem with the Rasmussen poll - no one knows for sure if the system used by Rasmussen is reliable. Some folks swear by the polls, while others, notably Chuck Todd and Stu Rothenberg, two very well regarded DC pundits discount the polls completely. Mr. Rothenberg in his column for Roll Call in which he evaluated the top ten US Senate races noted, "I must begin with one caveat: In evaluating races, I do not factor in certain widely circulated polls, including those conducted by Rasmussen Reports, that I regard as less reliable. (In other words, I treat some polls as if they don't even exist.)"

Incidentally,Rothenberg's column did not even include the Allen and Collins race in his top 10 Senate races. He did mention the following, "In sum, developments in two states, Minnesota and Maine, should have Republicans optimistic, while Democrats have reasons to be happy about some longer-shot races, as well as their top takeover opportunities."

Either way, it was a nice bounce for the Allen campaign. We will all have a chance -very soon-with the Critical insights Spring tracking poll, which should be out in the next week or so, to see if Rasmussen was a polling guru or just another reason to ignore public polls until the day after the election.