Editor’s note: PolitickerME.com has attempted to break down the state Senate races. Click here for a comprehensive overview, and on the following links for a closer look at the three tossup races – Senate District 1, Senate District 15 and Senate District 22.
With gaps in the U.S. House and Senate races widening, who controls the Maine Senate could be the biggest story coming out of Election Day when it comes to local races.
Currently the body stands at 18 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The GOP hopes to take control in the next Legislature, but Democrats only see themselves strengthening their numbers.
As follows is a breakdown of all 35 state Senate races. In addition, we have a more thorough analysis of the key races in Districts 1, 15 and 22. The information was compiled by looking at candidate and electoral histories, voter registration numbers, and – most importantly – through conversations with those close to the process.
The final breakdown:
- 9 races are rated SAFE DEMOCRAT
- 7 races are rated LIKELY DEMOCRAT
- 1 race is rated LEANS DEMOCRAT
- 3 races are rated TOSSUP
- 4 races are rated LEANS REPUBLICAN
- 5 races are rated LIKELY REPUBLICAN
- 6 races are rated SAFE REPUBLICAN
For the Republicans to gain the majority, they would need to win all three “tossup” races. Senate District 1 is their best chance to oust a Democratic incumbent. In Senate District 15, their Republican incumbent is at risk. In Senate District 22, their Republican incumbent is termed out, so they need to defend the open seat.
On both sides there are pickup opportunities that are a bit more of a stretch.
PolitickerME.com predictions are just that – predictions. And the one thing we can guarantee is that at least somewhere on this list we will be proven very, very wrong.
Senate District 1 – Tossup:
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