Maine Senate race in single digits

U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R) continues to lose support in her bid for reelection, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. In April, Collins led her Democratic challenger Tom Allen by 16 percentage points, but is now down to only a seven point lead at 42%, dropping her below 50% for the first time.

Collins' favorability rating -- at 65 percent -- is still high but is down five percentage points from last month. Meanwhile, her unfavorables rose from 29% to 33% in the past month.

She also has lost support from voters in her own party, with supports falling from 89% to 81% in just one month.

As for the democrats, Collins' challenger U.S. Rep. Tom Allen (D) has sustained fairly constant support over weeks of campaigning. Viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 37%, his numbers are essentially unchanged since May. Among his party, Allen's support has increased to 72% this month, up eight percentage points from May.

Allen earns support from 12% of the state's Republican voters, up from 9% last month, while 24% of Democrats still support Collins.

Is there still hope? Perhaps. In terms of unaffiliated voters, Collins leads 52% to 34%, a major step up from last month when Collins and Allen were tied at 4

MEGAN BUERGER can be reached via email at editordc1@politicker.com.

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Comments

Poor work on this story

posted by Larry Mondello

How is it mathematically possible for Collins to gain 18 points with Independents, Maine's largest voting bloc, yet slide from 10 to 7% in the general poll?

I know you don't cover Maine at all Megan, but your assessment of this race is totally wrong.

Let's use some basic math skills: This story says that
A) Susan Collins holds 24% of Democrats,
B) Susan Collins holds 81% of Republicans, and
C) Susan Collins holds 52% of Independents

Here's how Maine's voter registration breaks down:
32% Democrat
29% GOP
39% Independent

Combining these figures, Collins has at minimum 52% of the vote.

Covering stories from DC with no background is one thing, but saying things like 'So is there any hope?' is just irresponsible. The fact here is that you didn't apply even a moderate amount of skepticism (or 6th grade math) to the Rasmussen/ Allen press release, a problem way too common in journalism these days.

If you had taken five minutes to research this subject, you would first have found an overwhelming preponderance of bad news and bad polling for the Allen campaign lately. You next would have found that Rasmussen's numbers are being written off by serious pundits this year, and that the National Journal has ceased to use them at all.

I love this website, but I have to say you are going through some serious growing pains. If you want to survive in the Maine market beyond November, you should follow this simple rule: either do your research or don't write the story.

06/18/08 7:19 pm

Lectures from morons.

posted by Link

Nice schoolmarm impression, Larry.

But as you put it: "Collins has at minimum 52% of the vote." That ain't much for an incumbent Senator.

And the point of the story is the movement in the numbers, not the total.

06/18/08 8:48 pm

Poll

posted by Labor Rep

As I see it, there is cause for some concern - despite all the money labor and other entities have pumped into Congressman Allen's campaign, his numbers remain static. Perhaps Collins backed up a little with her base due to a hard fought primary between moderate Summers and right-winger Scontras (Scontras voters don't like her) but now that TeamDean is TeamGone, my fear is that the base will migrate back to her. In any regard, unless Tom Allen can create voters out of whole cloth, consistantly polling at 42% won't feed the bulldog

06/19/08 6:47 am

Fine.

posted by Larry Mondello

If this article is about movement, then my point is reinforced. The only significant movement this poll shows is Collins gaining a whopping 18 points with Independents in one month. That's astounding, and if it were true, that would merit an article on it's own. But it can't possibly be true, and it certainly can't be true that Collins' overall numbers would dip as a result.

Chuck Todd (now NBC news Director, formerly with National Journal)stated clearly why Rasmussen's numbers are not trusted:
"..we have the same policy on Rasmussen (who uses automated callers) as well as his numbers sometimes show movement where none should have occurred. Until the track records of these surveys are proven over a long period of time, we'll continue to ignore these poll results when conducting our own analysis."

And look how truly sloppy this article is. Here's a statement from the first paragraph:"but is now down to only a seven point lead at 42%"
Huh? If you find the actual poll, the numbers are Collins 49, Allen 42. "A seven point lead at 42" makes it seem like Collins is the 42. No where in the entire article does this reporter give the actual overall poll numbers.

And how about this for sloppy- the final statement:
"a major step up from last month when Collins and Allen were tied at 4"
What? Tied at 4? This of course is totally incorrect also. How on earth a reporter could screw up two major facts like this in a story that is only 6 paragraphs long, I don't know.

06/19/08 8:04 am

Collins

posted by Jonathan Albrecht

Its too early to be concerned with polls. People really aren't paying attention. But they are paying attention to Susan Collins many flip-flops. Last week she voted against middle class tax cuts before she voted for them this week.
People are beginning to understand that the Susan Collins in Maine is completely different than the Washington insider. She consistently votes against the interests of Maine working people and for the Bush program of economic and foreign policy failure. The more they understand the less they will like her.

06/19/08 12:46 pm

Robo-nonsense

posted by Bill Toby

The reporting is non-existent in this story, as is the ability to do math, or even apply logic. And by the way, Megan, that opening line is enough to make Tom Allen put you on his payroll.
Rassmussen is known for robo-calling crappy polls that none of the national media will take seriously.
How does a reporter not know this?

06/19/08 9:41 pm