State House race ratings: Penobscot County

By Jessica Alaimo, PolitickerME.com Reporter

PolitickerME.com has evaluated all 151 state House ratings by looking at the candidates, their histories and past results. We also spoke with people close to the process.

Click on the links for a county-by-county assessment:

Click here for an overall evaluation.

PENOBSCOT COUNTY

House District 10 – Safe Democrat: Rep. Herb Clark (D-Millinocket) is being challenged by Troy Whitaker (R-Millinocket). Clark is hoping for his 11th term in the Legislature, and has his eyes on leadership. In 2006, he won 2,942 to 671, and will be very difficult to beat this year.

H.D. 11 – Safe Republican: Rep. Everett McLeod, Sr. (R-Lee) is running for his third term unopposed.

H.D. 12 – Safe Republican: This is a solid Republican district, which Rep. Jeffery Gifford (R-Lincoln) won solidly 1,953 to 1,145 in 2006. Gifford is running for a second term, one that will be very difficult for challenger Jeffery Miller (D-Lincoln) to prevent.

H.D. 13 – Lean Democrat: Rep. Robert Duchesne (D-Hudson) won his second term in 2006 by just over 100 votes. This race will be close again this year, however Duchesne’s incumbent status, and the visibility he has attained in his community working on issues surrounding the Old Town dump gives him an advantage over challenger Geraldine Randall (R-Hudson).

H.D. 14 – Safe Democrat: Richard Blanchard (D-Old Town) is very popular in his district, winning solidly 2,105 to 963 in 2006. He should have no problem beating both his challengers, Julie DeSanctis (R-Old Town) and Edward Spencer, an independent from Old Town.

H.D. 15 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Rep. Jackie Norton (D-Bangor) is termed out, and Adam Goode (D-Bangor) and Charles Bearce (R-Bangor) are competing for the seat. It is a Democratic district, with Norton winning 1,941 to 1,118 in 2006. Goode proved that he is a strong candidate by solidly winning a three-way primary, and he will likely beat Bearce in November.

H.D. 16 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Pat Blanchette (D-Bangor) is termed out, and Steven Butterfield (D-Bangor) and Douglas Damon (R-Bangor) are competing for the seat. Both are known in the community and are highly motivated. While this district has belonged to Republicans in the past, Blanchette won 1,441 to 753 in 2006. This year, Butterfield has the advantage, albeit a slight one.

H.D. 17 – Tossup: Incumbent Sean Faircloth (D-Bangor) is leaving the seat to run for Attorney General, and both candidates seeking to replace him are very well known in the district. John Cashwell III (R-Bangor) is a former mayor of the city. Sara Stevens (D-Bangor) works for U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud, has close ties in the business community, and her mom is a former legislator. Both candidates are strong, so this race is anyone’s game.

H.D. 18 – Tossup: Incumbent Michael Dunn (D-Bangor) has decided not to run, opening up a three-way race between Patrick Joyce (R-Veazie), James Martin (D-Orono) and Thomas Mooney, an independent from Bangor. The race brings an interesting dynamic, as the two major party candidates come from parts of the district where only a small fraction of the votes are cast. Mooney’s impact on the election is also unpredictable, as in the past he has sought office as a Democrat, and then later as a Republican. Dunn won by just over 100 votes in 2006, so this year it could swing in any direction.

H.D. 19 – Safe Democrat: While the College Republicans are fielding candidates all over the state, they failed to find one to run in Maine’s biggest college town. Incumbent Emily Cain (D-Orono) is unopposed.

H.D. 20 – Tossup: This district has historically leaned Republican, but in 2006 incumbent Ben Pratt (D-Eddington) snuck away with a victory, winning by 20 votes. This year Pratt faces Steven Juskewitch (R-Dedham), a former prosecutor for the district. While Republicans contend that Juskewitch is a strong candidate, he has a rocky history with the party stemming from 2002 when, after losing a primary for Hancock County District Attorney, he challenged the prevailing Republican as a write-in candidate. Still, word has it that he is making strides in the district – the bulk of which falls in Penobscot County -- and this will be a close race.

H.D. 21 – Tossup: Long-time incumbent Charles “Dusty” Fisher (D-Brewer) is leaving, and Michael Celli (R-Brewer) and Ruth-Marie Spellman (D-Brewer) hope to take his place. Fisher was popular, winning 2,188 to 1,494 in 2006, and he has taken Spellman under his wing, going door to door with her. Both candidates are well known in the district – Celli is a former mayor of Brewer and Spellman is a long-time school board member. Spellman also ran for the Senate in 2006, losing to Sen. Richard Rosen (R-Bucksport) but winning Brewer. Still, the district has had conservative tendencies in the past, and given the strength of both candidates, it is anyone’s game.

H.D. 22 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Christian Greeley (R-Levant) won easily in 2006 against Ben Lamborn (D-Levant), 2,527 to 1,066. The same two candidates are running, and likely the results will be the same.

H.D. 23 – Safe Republican: Incumbent David Richardson (R-Carmel) won easily 2,399 to 1,597 in 2006, and he should have no problem beating challenger Jim Hooper (D-Hermon) this year.

H.D. 25 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Josh Tardy (R-Newport) serves as the House Republican leader. This year he has attained statewide visibility by serving as the state co-chair for Republican John McCain’s presidential campaign, and there are already murmurings that he will run for governor in 2010. He won reelection by about 2,000 votes in 2006, and should have no problem beating challenger Frederick Austin (D-Newport) this year.

H.D. 39 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Brian Duprey (R-Hampden) is termed out, and Andre Cushing III (R-Hampden) and David Higgins (D-Hampden) are vying to take his spot. Both are strong candidates. Cushing is a veteran of several Republican campaigns, is on the Hampden council and is active in the community. He won a three-way primary easily – one of his opponents being the incumbent’s wife. Higgins, however, is also very popular in the district. He challenged Duprey in 2006 and lost by only 20 votes. This district tends to be more conservative, however, which gives Cushing the advantage.

JESSICA ALAIMO is a PolitickerME.com Reporter and can be reached via email at jessica.alaimo@politickerme.com.

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Comments

The CRs did recruit a

posted by Oronodude

The CRs did recruit a candidate for the Orono seat but the state party messed up the papers so she did not get on the ballot

10/14/08 3:53 am

Excellent Commentary

posted by Cary Weston

I think your summary of the Bangor races is excellent. With four open seats and a recent history of Democratic voting trends in Bangor, our City Republican Committee has spent a great deal of effort recruiting and working with a fine slate of fiscally responsible candidates with business, military and leadership experience.

We were charged with finding candidates with more than just spare time on their hands to step up and face the tough decisions that Maine must deal with and I feel we've succeeded.

I am hoping that our city really takes a look at the credentials of both sides before casting their vote.

The Queen City has a great opportunity to lead the state in sending candidates to Augusta with skills that many feel are lacking - logical budgetary, business and real world experience to help change the course of our state.

Thank you for helping to cast light on these races. Its a great resource for our region!

10/14/08 1:52 pm