State House race ratings: Aroostook County

By Jessica Alaimo, PolitickerME.com Reporter

PolitickerME.com has evaluated all 151 state House ratings by looking at the candidates, their histories and past results. We also spoke with people close to the process.

Click on the links for a county-by-county assessment:

Click here for an overall evaluation.

AROOSTOOK COUNTY:

House District 1 – Safe Democrat: This was John Martin’s (D-Eagle Lake) seat. This will be John Martin’s seat again. This will be John Martin’s seat until term limits kick him back to the Senate. Martin, currently a Senator, and incumbent Rep. Troy Jackson (D-Fort Kent), are termed out of their current seats and hope to switch places. Martin is unopposed.

HD 2 – Safe Democrat: Rep. Ken Theriault (D-Madawaska) coasted into his first term unopposed. Now, the Republicans have chosen to deprive him again of a contested election. Unopposed again, the seat is his.

HD 3 – Tossup: Rep. Bernard Ayotte (R-Caswell) is running for his second term against Wade McLaughlin (D-Limestone). Ayotte narrowly won the seat in 2006, and a Democrat had held the seat before, so this is likely one seat that the Democrats have their eye on this year.

HD 4 – Safe Republican: Rep. Peter Edgecomb (R-Caribou) is one of the few Republicans running unopposed this year, and this seat will remain in the GOP’s hands.

HD 5 – Tossup: Incumbent Jeremy Fischer (D-Presque Isle), who won this seat solidly in 2006, is retiring. Beth Michaud (R-Presque Isle) and Michael Willette (D-Presque Isle) are competing for the open seat. In 2004 the district split almost evenly between Bush and Kerry, but in 2006 both the state House and Senate Democratic candidates were favored solidly. However, Willette got a late start in this race, which may give Michaud the advantage.

HD 6 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Jackie Lundeen (D-Mars Hill) is leaving the seat to run for the Senate. Tyler Clark (R-Easton), a college student, and Kyle Green (D-Westfield) are competing for the seat. While Clark has the backing of the young Republican movement, he is new to the area, which gives Green a great advantage.

HD 7 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Pat Sutherland (D-Chapman) is up for her second term against college student Zach Smith (R-Presque Isle). This district was previously held by a Republican, and Sutherland won by a mere four votes in 2006. A strong showing by Smith could put this seat back in the Republican’s hands, although Sutherland is still favored to win at this point.

HD 8 – Tossup: Incumbent Richard Cleary (D-Houlton) is running against Mary DeAnne Rogan (R-Houlton) and independent Stanley Ginish. This will be a key pick-up opportunity for the Republicans, as Cleary won the seat by 129 votes in 2006, and a Republican held the seat previously. Cleary could also be hurt by the independent in the race.

HD 9 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Rep. Henry Joy (R-Crystal) is going for his eighth term in this district, getting 65 percent of the vote in 2006. While challenger Robert “Bo” Zabierek (D-Sherman) has been referred to as a possible “black horse” in this election, the odds are clearly not in his favor.

JESSICA ALAIMO is a PolitickerME.com Reporter and can be reached via email at jessica.alaimo@politickerme.com.