Another poll, another advantage for Collins

The latest Critical Insights poll has given incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Bangor) a 10-point advantage over her Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Tom Allen.

The numbers are as follows: Collins, 50 percent; Allen, 40 percent; Undecided, 9 percent; and refused, 1 percent. They were about the same in the 1st and 2nd congressional districts.

Independent candidate Herb Hoffman was not an option on the poll.

The Critical Insights poll collected the information through 602 telephone interviews between June 1 and June 27. There is a 3.4 percent margin of error at the 90 percent confidence level.

92 percent of those polled were registered voters. 42 percent were Democrats, 27 percent were Republicans and 23 percent were independents. 58 percent were male and 42 percent were female. 89 percent have lived in Maine for more than 10 years.

A break-down of the Collins-Allen gap is as follows:

• Democrats: 65 percent supported Allen, 27 percent supported Collins, 8 percent were undecided
• Republicans: 83 percent supported Collins, 9 percent supported Allen and 8 percent were undecided
• Independents: 61 percent supported Collins, 27 percent supported Allen, 12 percent were undecided
• 1st Congressional District: 50 percent supported Collins, 38 percent supported Allen, 12 percent were undecided
• 2nd Congressional District: 51 percent supported Collins, 36 percent supported Allen, 13 percent were undecided

Both President Bush and Gov. John Baldacci are continuing to see declining approval ratings among Mainers.

Forty-eight percent of Mainers disapprove of Baldacci’s job performance, and 39 percent approve. This is a wider gap from last fall, when 47 percent disapproved and 44 percent approved.

Democrats are more likely to approve of Baldacci than Republicans, and those in the 1st Congressional District are more likely to approve than in 2nd district.Of Independents, 53 percent disapproved, 33 percent approved and 12 percent didn’t know.

Ratings were far worse for President Bush, with 71 percent of those polled saying their opinion of the president is not favorable, and 15 percent saying it was favorable.

Eighty-nine percent of Democrats disapproved of Bush, along with 77 percent of independents and 42 percent of Republicans.

The Critical Insights poll showed a 51 to 31 percent gap between presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain. Fifty-one percent of Mainers support Obama, 31 percent support McCain, 16 percent didn’t know and 2 percent refused to answer.

The congressional district breakdown is as follows:

• ME-1: 54 percent for Barack Obama; 27 percent for John McCain; 17 percent were undecided; and 2 percent refused.
• ME-2: 47 percent for Obama; 36 percent for McCain; 15 percent were undecided; and 2 percent refused.

Two-fifths of those who support Obama would like to see U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, the 2004 nominee for vice president, was the second choice.

Most of those supporting McCain didn’t know who they would like to see as a running mate. Of those who did, Mitt Romney was the most popular choice.

The poll also revealed a drastic increase in Mainers’ concerns about the economy. Ninety-one percent reported that their perception of the economy was worse than it was 12 months ago, compared to 61 percent giving the same answer last fall.

Mainers are also more pessimistic about the future of the economy. Sixty percent said they are both saving less and driving less, because of gas prices.

The poll also asked what Mainers thought the possibility was of a terrorist attack in the next few months. The answers were as follows: 43 percent said not very likely; 23 percent said somewhat likely; 7 percent said very likely; 13 percent said not at all likely; and 14 percent said they were unsure.

Some other results:

• Fifty-two percent said it was not likely that they would vote for a legislative candidate who had voted to increase state taxes.
• Eighty-two percent believe that the country is in an economic recession.
• Sixty-two percent said the increasing food and gas prices have caused financial hardship for them.