Pindell Report: Collins seat increasingly safe
By Editor
Susan Collins' re-election bid, which was once of the country's most closely watched U.S. Senate races, is becoming increasingly more secure for Collins, a new Politicker.com analysis shows.
The race is currently ranked as the 12th most-competitive race out of the 35 U.S. Senate races this year.
U.S. Sen. Susan Collins: Congressional Photo "On paper this race should be one of the most competitive in the county. This year Republican Susan Collins faces a good candidate in a good year for Democrats. Maine voters are the poorest in the region, they dislike the Iraq war, they allow high taxes. But it turns out they also love their Republican female U.S. senators," said Politicker.com Managing Editor James Pindell, the author of The Pindell Report. "There is still a chance Democrat Tom Allen can gain from the environment around him, but those opportunities get smaller by the day."
The Pindell Report aims to provide the country's most dynamic and richly reported ranking and analysis of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial and presidential swing states.
The non-partisan report ranks races in order of their competitiveness. Therefore the No. 1 race in the country is the most likely to be decided by one vote. The race ranked last is believed to have a larger margin of victory -- no matter if it is a Republican win or Democratic win. In determining competitiveness the reports takes into account polling, fundraising, past election data, demographic changes and interviews with the nation's top political strategists. The report also heavily uses Politicker.com's reporters out in the field covering these elections for the network's state-based websites. The rankings are evaluated daily ensuring rankings are current.
Interestingly, neither of Maine's congressional races are among the 59 top competitive House races and the state is also not considered to be a presidential swing state.
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Give me a break
Sure, this seat leans Collins, but Pindell ranks NH-Sen as the most competitive in the country? This kid needs to wake up. That seat is clearly going Dem, almost no question about it. All the polls show it, and the poll of polls is clear. Sununu is gone.
If we are to believe this is #12, we must believe his rankings are accurate. Just because Pindell puts on a tie and has his picture taken doesn't mean he can even be close to predicting these races.
This is it?
I clicked through to see some in depth analysis of why this race is now seen to favor Collins, and all I found was this:
That's the analysis folks: Allen, despite basically matching Collins in fundraising in the 2Q, is seen as behind because he hasn't "raised any serious money." No mention that Rasmussen has Allen down only 7 points two months in a row, with Collins below 50% both months (and spare me the Critical Insights poll - I blew that up at TMB), no mention of the on the ground domination for Dem field workers in Maine, or the contrast between the Obama and McCain campaigns.
If PolitickerMe is going to put forth analysis, then let's see some: this isn't what I would call "dynamic and rich."
What is
TMB? Maybe I'm showing a lack of political know-how but I've never heard of it...
TurnMaineBlue.com
Labor rep,
TurnMaineBlue.com is a great political blog focused on Maine Democratic Politics.
TurnMaineWho?
Is that an active blog? Looks like just a couple fringe loonies arguing with each other.
mmhmm
Ya, i heard that website is something the Tom Allen people cooked up to occupy their crazy volunteers.
Keeps em out of the office, thinking they're doing some good.
Actually...
It's been around since 2006.
And not everyone there is an Allen supporter
You're Right...
They are also Hoffman supporters.
This race has been done for a long time, don't act surprised or defiant. Allen has run a terrible campaign, his staff is as inept as humanly possible, and he has made so many poor decisions since his campaign began that it is a wonder that he didn't lose to Ledue in the primary.
Stop acting shocked...everybody who follows politics in Maine knows with a relative degree of certainty that Tom Allen will lose by a very sizable margin (not Snowe/Hay Bright margins) but enough that it will make a significant dent in his upcoming Gubernatorial bid.
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